The “Recession of 2023” that was widely forecasted failed to materialize. Inflation has moderated, but likely remains in a “messy middle” range of 2% to 5%, and the narrow market leadership of U.S. technology stocks during 2023 has created potential opportunities in other segments such as U.S. small cap and non-U.S. equities.

Interest rates continued to decline in the month. Equity markets finished the year on a positive note, and U.S. REITs experienced favorable results as interest rates declined and the office sector rebounded from lows earlier in the year.

Markets rallied in November giving investors plenty for which to be thankful.

Interest rates fell sharply in the month as inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve reduced its hawkish tone. Equity markets around the world rebounded in November, and REITs rallied in the month alongside equity counterparts and pushed into positive territory year-to-date.

Crescent Wealth Management is pleased to announce Harlan Partners as its newest Affiliate Partner. This partnership brings an expanded scope of services in the financial and insurance industry, allowing the managing partners of Harlan to offer more sophisticated solutions to their clients.

With year-end rapidly approaching and the holiday season drawing near, the fast-paced routine of everyday life can easily consume our attention. However, amid the hustle and bustle, it is imperative not to lose sight of valuable planning opportunities which have the potential to yield significant financial benefits. With that in mind, we crafted a year-end financial checklist highlighting several timely planning considerations.

The S&P 500 entered a “correction,” fixed income continues to struggle and small caps have struggled this year on a few simple narratives, but may offer unique opportunity relative to their large cap peers.

Fixed income markets were broadly negative as rates moved higher in the month. Even with positive earnings surprises and a blended EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 that has moved into positive territory, U.S. equities took another step back in the month, and both REITs and real assets fell in October.

We are likely at or near the peak cycle Federal Funds rate as the Fed evaluates a lagged impact from its monetary policy actions. Rising interest rates have increased the return outlook for fixed income and valuations look attractive relative to equities and inflation has improved significantly since peaking above nine percent in 2022 and is approaching the Fed’s two percent target.

Fixed income markets were broadly negative as rates moved higher in the month. Equity markets saw negative returns during the month as investors grappled with the possibility of higher-for-longer interest rates and the impact on future earnings, and REITs were negative during the month on fears of future rate hikes and their potential impact on demand.

U.S. core fixed income was negative as rates rose on expectations of a higher-for-longer view from the Federal Reserve. Equity markets saw negative returns in August. U.S. small cap equity fell farthest, as higher rates raised concerns and turned sentiment negative, and REITs were negative primarily amongst resorts and regional malls.

Crescent Wealth Management Ranks No. 2,511 on the 2023 Inc. 5000 Annual List

Favorable economic data fuels risk assets as markets post solid gains during July.

U.S. core fixed income was slightly negative as the Fed continued to hike rates during the month. Equity markets saw positive returns in July. U.S. small cap equity led the way, as sentiment turned strongly positive on better-than-expected economic data, and REITs posted positive returns as offices saw a huge rebound during the month.

Crescent Wealth Management founder, Timothy Wyrobek named on Forbes and SHOOK Research lists of Top Financial Security Professionals 2023

In our 2023 Outlook, Goodbye TINA, we outlined three broad themes that were likely to influence markets in 2023 – continued volatility, moderating inflation and a bear market bottom. Our portfolio positioning remains similar, and we believe our exposure to high-quality intermediate duration fixed income, in particular, adds to the resiliency of our portfolios while also benefiting long-term returns based on higher overall yields. While many anticipated a recession in 2023, one has yet to materialize.

The S&P 500 continued its Q1 rally through June lead by a narrow band of securities. One of the most anticipated recessions of all time has yet to materialize, though risks are rising, and Q2 data continued the moderating inflation trend with the Consumer Price Index hitting 4% for the first time since 2021.

Fixed income markets were broadly positive despite rates moving higher during the month. Equity markets saw positive returns in June, and REITs posted positive returns in June amid a strong housing sector.

All eyes remain on Congress as the June “x-date” approaches.