Goodbye TINA (There is No Alternative)

Despite another 75 basis points hike by the Fed, lower-than-forecast inflation numbers gave investors hope of a slowdown in future hikes, pushing rates lower and supporting fixed income returns. Promising economic data, such as lower inflation and strong retail sales, aided equity returns across geographies, with domestic markets trailing foreign developed and emerging market equities, and REITs were higher for the month on softening inflation data and positive interest rate-related sentiment.

Equity markets broadly enjoyed a reprieve from September lows, but fixed income and China continue to struggle in the face of a hawkish Fed and investor concerns as President Xi consolidates power.

October brought more pain for investors, interest rates moved higher and the yield curve remained inverted. Domestic and developed markets equities delivered strong returns in October as data revealing a slowdown gave investors hope for a Fed pause and positive equity momentum helped REITs as well, which saw a broad-based rally.

Our Quarterly Considerations report includes data on Third Quarter 2022 Market Themes, Economic Review, Asset Class Performance, Fixed Income Market, Equity Market, Real Asset Market, Marketable Alternatives, Private Equity Market, Diversification and Financial Markets Performance.

While longer term performance remained strong, one-year return calculations have moderated across all private equity strategies. The fundraising environment was competitive and both middle market and emerging managers faced headwinds as allocators prioritized long-standing relationships with larger, more established firms.

A firm stance on fighting inflation from Jackson Hole pushed markets lower as investors wrestle with the impact on the global economy.

Crescent Wealth Management founder, Timothy Wyrobek named on Forbes and SHOOK Research list of Top Financial Security Professionals 2022

Interest rates rose as markets anticipated a continued hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve in its aim to combat inflation. Bond prices were lower as prices generally move inversely to rates. Equities sold off following the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit as investors digested rhetoric that suggested a firm Fed stance to fight inflation “until the job is done,” and higher interest rates were a headwind for REITs in August. In addition, the asset class sold off with the broader risk-off move of equities.

Crescent Wealth Management Ranks No. 1700 on the 2022 Inc. 5000 Annual List

Markets eye earnings reports for forward guidance in a challenging environment.

Falling long-term rates were a reprieve for fixed income investors, marking only the second positive month for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index this year, U.S. equities rebounded sharply in July, fueled in part by better-than-expected earnings reports and a shift in market sentiment that the Fed’s actions may be taking hold to combat inflation as we move into the next year and REITs moved higher, in line with the broader equity market. Lower interest rates and a strong summer travel season buoyed the sector.

Our Quarterly Considerations report includes data on Second Quarter 2022 Market Themes, Economic Review, Asset Class Performance, Fixed Income Market, Equity Market, Real Asset Market, Diversification and Financial Markets Performance.

Anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in June pushed rates higher in the first half of the month, but growing concerns of a recession caused rates to revert as the month progressed. Equity markets globally added further to losses in June, ending what has been a difficult first half of the year, and REITs were lower in June as investors repriced risks with higher rates.

There is nothing enjoyable about market corrections and/or recessions. They create fear, anxiety and uncertainty, potentially requiring a change in plans - like reduced spending in retirement or an unanticipated job search. Perspective can go a long way to successfully navigating these periods, uncomfortable and difficult as they may be. Outlined here is some enduring wisdom we can share having invested through bear markets and as students of history.

As outlined in our January 2022 Outlook - Navigating Moderation, we anticipated a challenging investment environment with heightened levels of volatility. The broad themes outlined at the beginning of the year – the evolving nature of the pandemic, central bankers’ balancing act and historically high inflation remain the prevailing themes, and as of June 13, 2022, the S&P 500 officially entered bear market territory, which is more than 20 percent below its all-time high set in January of 2022.

Fixed income securities gained in May as rates trended lower as markets priced in somewhat higher chances of a recession with weaker economic data than earlier in the year. Despite closing largely flat, equities were volatile in May and making recent lows since early 2020. Investors contended with higher rates, inflation costs, slowing consumer demand and the prospect of a recession following mixed economic data and resurging travel demand and embargoes on Russian oil continued to push energy prices higher.

We are honored to be named as one of Atlanta’s Largest Life Insurance Agencies by the Atlanta Business Chronicle. We’d like to especially thank all of our partners, staff, and advisors who have been instrumental in our growth and success.

Crescent Wealth Management is pleased to announce Pinpoint Wealth Partners as its newest Affiliate Partner. This partnership brings an expanded scope of services in the financial and insurance industry, allowing the managing partners of Pinpoint to offer more sophisticated solutions to their clients.

High inflation, a strong labor market and anticipation of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes pushed interest rates higher in April, putting negative pressure on bond prices across sectors. Equities were lower in April, reversing March’s gains and continuing their whipsaw in 2022 as investors contended with higher rates, inflation and downward growth revisions/negative GDP growth and while crude is off recent highs, commodities continued their move higher as European governments considered alternatives to Russian oil and gas.